Influence of Climatic Changes on the Distribution of Geographical Spaces from the Floating Ivory Coast: Case of the Family of Acanthaceae

Abstract

The object of this study is to estimate the diversity and the influence of the climate changes on spatial of the species of the family of Acanthaceae in Ivory Coast. Fluctuations in climatic variables such as precipitation and temperature are likely to affect biodiversity and the geographical distribution of habitats favourable to species. The principle of «Maximum Entropy» was used to model the habitats of Dicliptera alternans Lindau, Elytraria ivorensis Dokosi and of Whitfieldia lateritia Hook. under the current and future climatic conditions (horizon 2050/scénario A2). These species were selected on the one hand on the basis of number of occurrences and on the other hand by taking account of their endemic nature. The contact of presence of the species was collected and combined with the bioclimatic data extracted the database www.worldbioclim.org. The surface of the potentially favorable zones of distribution or not, was calculated for each species. The document retrieval revealed a total of 106 species left again between 39 kinds and of which 16% are endemic at the Ivory Coast. 7 species are register on the local list of the endangered species and rare of the Ivory Coast of Aké-Assi L. Les values of the AUC of about 0.90 indicate excellent quality of the models generated for the distribution of the model species by 2050, the results reveal that the «Seasonal variation of the temperature (Bio 4) » is the environmental variable which contributed the most to the prediction of the model of the species Dicliptera alternans Lindau, Elytraria ivorensis Dokosi and Whitfieldia lateritia Hook. The A2 scenario shows by a 2050 reduction of the surface of the potentially favorable zones of the species will des Dicliptera alternans Lindau, Elytraria ivorensis Dokosi and Whitfieldia lateritia Hook respectively of 67.66%, 3.35% and of 1.17%. In spite of these changes observed, the results show that the protected areas in Ivory Coast remain refuges under the current and future environmental conditions for the species of the family of Acanthaceae. This study confirms the impact proven of the climate changes on the spatiotemporelle distribution of the species. This work will help to better guide decision making in terms of conservation and management of protected areas as biodiversity refuges.