Mathematical Model and Prediction Analysis of Automobile Power Battery Withdrawal Considering Weibull Distribution

Abstract

As a national strategic emerging industry, new energy vehicles have developed vigorously in recent years. However, the industry lacks relevant models for the specific temporal and spatial prediction analysis of retired batteries, and how determining the future amount of retired new energy vehicles has become a hotspot in the industry. In this paper, based on the data of the national new energy vehicle sales terminals, the Weibull distribution is used to construct the retirement volume model, and the model parameters are calculated by vehicle type to realize the spatial and temporal prediction analysis of the retirement of the retired power battery. The model has good interpretation and has a strong correlation in 51% of the model data and correlation in 90% of the model data, which can provide a theoretical basis for the industry layout and research.