A Study on Dynamic Relationships between the Area and Production of Food Grain Crops Based on ARDL Model and Bound Cointegration Test

Abstract

The autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), which deals with complex relationships and robust autocorrelation in agricultural production data, is employed in the current study. Mapping and monitoring tools are imperative in assessing agricultural systems and guiding future decision-making to safeguard food security. This chapter shows that, from 1950 to 2018, there was a substantial long-term association between the area and output of food grain crops cultivated in India. The stability of the model parameters are investigated. The cumulative sum of recursive residuals test and the cumulative sum of recursive residual squares tests are employed to evaluate the consistency of the model parameters.  Cointegration equations such as the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and canonical cointegration regression (CCR) are applied to check the long-run elasticities in the concerned relationship.