Feasibility Study with Flexibility and Uncertainty about Investment in Generation of Photovoltaic Solar Energy

Abstract

The goal of this research is to establish a methodology that enables the capture of environmental uncertainties by enhancing decision-making in order to assess the viability of funding a solar energy producing project. a photovoltaic (PV) technologies for electricity generation accounting scheme is proposed and applied. The adopted scheme aims to overcome limitations of conventional indicators such as EROI (Energy Return on Investment) and EPBT (Energy Payback Time) and to present a more comprehensive description of energy and material transformations. The paper gives a comparative analysis of the investment feasibility of a solar mini-energy system for shopping, taking into account a regime of certainty and uncertainty. The cost of solar panels and the electricity tariff were the two hypothesized stochastic variables. The trajectories were simulated with the binomial approach that combined resulted in a quadratic diagram. The applied methodology presented the best recommendation and the option to wait was the most valuable. The exchange of the energy obtained from Light Serviços de Eletricidade S/A - Brazilian electricity company by own generation of energy with a solar photovoltaic source will be viable for the manager since it observes the behavior of the variables over time and follows the rules of optimal decision.